14 November 2005 Blog Home : November 2005 : Permalink
AMMAN, Jordan - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is on the move, or at least that's the message he wants to send.
With Wednesday's attacks in his birthplace of Jordan, the al-Qaida in Iraq chief signaled he has the capacity and desire to export his suicide-bombing campaign outside Iraq's borders.
Now, many in the already volatile Middle East worry his stated goals of toppling pro-American Arab rulers, erecting an Islamic caliphate and targeting
Israel may be gaining momentum.
His threat is not new to the region, but the three fiery hotel blasts that killed 57 people in one of the Mideast's most secure cities sparked instant calls for regional and international efforts to fight terror.
Officials in Iraq, where al-Zarqawi's bloody campaign is known all too well, repeated warnings that terrorism will only keep spreading in the Mideast, unless countries work harder to help Iraq end its raging insurgency.
And of course it is all the fault of the AmericansMost regional analysts and officials say they believe the U.S.-led war in Iraq has in fact created and worsened — not stamped out — a breeding ground for terrorism.
"Al-Zarqawi has proved a very fundamental point, that the Americans can't control al-Qaida in Iraq," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi senior security analyst with the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. "Iraq is no longer a magnet attracting terrorism, but it is now exporting terrorist forces."
Of course you could rewrite this a bit. How about: As US and Iraqi officials have warned for years if terrorists are allowed to flow into Iraq freely then obviously they can flow out again equally simply; perhaps because Iraq has proven to be a dangerous place for terrorists Al Zarqawi is trying to move his operations elsewhere before they are destroyed.Significantly, al-Zarqawi demonstrated with the Amman attacks that he has at least some Iraqis, and not just foreign fighters, on his side.
The three suicide bombers who died in the Grand Hyatt, Radisson SAS and Days Inn attacks were Iraqis, as was the wife of one of the men, who failed in her attempt to blow herself up and was arrested Sunday.
I'm sure that once upon a time, maybe a year or 18 moths ago, we were being told incessantly that the "Iraqi insurgency" was a response by the Sunnis, if not all Iraqis, to the American invasion. At that time agencies like AP were down playing the existence of foreign fighters, hinting that this was just American propaganda. Now however it is considered remarkable that Zarqawi actually has some Iraqis amongst his fightersSome, however, cast doubt on whether al-Zarqawi had the ability to wage a wider war and whether the Amman attacks were a sign of worse to come.
"One event does not mark a trend, and Jordanian security repeatedly blocked prior attack attempts," said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "It is also important to note that it is far from clear that al-Zarqawi has a broad network."
Are the "some" in this bit more than the "many" earlier?While his commitment to waging his terror campaign in Iraq seemed unparalleled, Iraq may in the end prove just the beginning, says Alani.
"Al-Zarqawi is competing with the al-Qaida headquarters," he said. "With the Amman attacks, he has now proved that the brand in Iraq is able to carry out operations on a regional scale."
But it is importnat to make clear that this is just a viewpoint of "some" so we get more negativism from Mr Alani. One can't help wondering whether Mr Alani is now just a tad worried that his home in Dubai might now be threatened by Zarqawi & co? Perhaps he'd better bugger off back to London and travel on the nice safe tubes. Anyway our doom and gloom merchant at AP wants to make it clear that Zarqawi really is a threat to us all as he signs off with:Two attacks in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula killed about 100, including Israeli tourists, and were claimed by several groups, including al-Zarqawi's.
Jordan's renowned intelligence services have foiled numerous al-Zarqawi terror plots here, including a planned 2004 chemical attack targeting the kingdom's security headquarters. But officials admit it was only a matter of time before a successful attack.
Says Labib Kamhawi, a Jordanian terror analyst: "Al-Zarqawi is gaining momentum and getting more sophisticated."
This is, apart from anything else, a report more notable by what it omits. Where, for example, is the "Jordan bombings cause backlash amongst ordinary Muslims" story? where is the "Moroccans protest at Zarqawi threats" story? where, to put it bluntly, is there any clue that Zarqawi has seen hundreds of his recruits and dozens of his senior leaders captured or killed in Iraq? reading this article you get the idea that Zarqawi is having things all his own way and that having turned the whole of Iraq into a "raging insurgency" he is now diversifying elsewhere. Inconvenient facts such as the fact that most of Iraq is peaceful and that the vast majority of attacks seem to be stopped before they are launched are ignored because they might give the impression that Zarqawi is looking for an exit strategy to conceal the fact that Iraq is now too dangerous for him. Where, to put it bluntly, is anything along the lines of Austin Bay's or Steven Den Beste's analysis of the counter-productivity of terrorism? (Thanks Vodkapundit for the latter link). Indeed the Vodkapundit (Stephen Green) wrote a very good article on the press being the key weapon in the current war a few days ago wherein he complained that the US government was losing the war because it was not using this weapon correctly and this piece looks like a perfect example of what he was talking about.