Here on the Riviera one of the more popular posters, one that is displayed everywhere, is the NON poster I linked to a few weeks back urging voters to reject the EU constitution. This does not necessarily mean that the "Non" campaign is assured of victory but it does do two very important things. Firstly it firmly associates the "Oui" campaign with the French elite - particularly with M. l'Escroc - and secondly it indicates strongly that voting "Non" is a way to remove l'Escroc from office. This is a smart strategy because it resonates strongly with an electorate which is both cynical about its politicians and dislikes the current government. However I'd say that the various responses to this positioning are almost as interesting as the positioning itself.
To begin with, as numerous people have noted, l'Escroc is only avoiding corruption charges because of presidential immunity and thus he desperately wishes to remain president. This means that he needs to win the next presidential election unless, by some miracle, the various cases against him and his aides collapse. Hence, although the next campaign isn't until 2007 the jockeying has already begun. This means that anyone who harbours presidential ambitions really really wants to see l'Escroc get a bloody nose on 29 May, however in most cases they have to go through the motions of supporting the EU constitution.
On the French left is still in some disarray - there are no charismatic lefties as far as I can tell - which means that even if the left manages to form a parliamentary majority it seems highly unlikely to produce an electable presidential candidate. However, despite various leading nobodies earnestly claiming that "no really we think you should all vote OUI, honest", the more accurate position is that summed up by the poster - essentially that "the EU is dominated by evil capitalists who want to do us poor french working stiffs" and at least one leading leftie semi-nobody - Laurent Fabius - has come out explicitly against the constitution. This AFP article explains the position well:
But of deeper concern for the government of President Jacques Chirac were figures showing that most sympathisers with the political left now believe the constitution to be bad for France and Europe.
Opposition has become the majority view not just on the Trotskyist and Communist far-left, but even among the mainstream Socialists (PS) -- whose leadership is actually campaigning in favour of the constitution, the survey reported.
Some 53 percent of Socialist party sympathisers are planning to vote "no" compared to 45 percent in a similar poll a week before. A mass defection of PS support would be an almost insurmountable blow for the "yes" camp.
The findings showed how the "no" campaign's bid to tar the constitution as a sell-out to unregulated market economics has struck a chord with the French public.
They also indicated that a "no" vote is no longer seen as taboo among a part of the electorate that generally describes itself as "pro-European."
...
The PS held an internal referendum in November in which 59 percent of members toed the party line and supported the constitution, but opponents led by former prime minister Laurent Fabius have continued to mobilise and now feel emboldened by the opinion polls.
Support for the "no" camp in France has been fed by a groundswell of discontent since the start of the year, as voters increasingly identify the EU with their most pressing social concerns: ten percent unemployment, stagnant wage packets and the flight of jobs to low-protection economies in the east.
"European construction goes hand-in-hand for these people with business relocation, the decline of the welfare state and economic insecurity," said Ipsos director Pierre Giacometti.
To be honest though because of the complete lack of charismatic lefities all the interest is on the right where l'Escroc is likely to face a challenge from Nicolas Sarkozy who is energetic, popular and, apparently talented. Last year l'Escroc did his best to sideline Sarkozy by forcing him to choose either the presidency of the UMP party, a good position to make a campaign to be the next national president, or a cabinet post. Sarkozy chose the former and indeed has not been particularly vocal recently.
Until recently, I have no doubt, the sidelining strategy must have appeared to be a most successful trick by l'Escroc, but now that the EU constitution is being framed by many of its opponents as a referendum on l'Escroc - hence the title to this post - perhaps this plan wasn't so good. Apart from Sarkozy all of l'Escroc's ministers are either despised or total nobodies, and the government as a whole is unpopular - in a nutshell, as the AFP article explained - the French street dislikes all of the (necessary, indeed urgently needed) reforms that the current government has tried to put through. If positioning of the constitution as a referendum on l'Escroc, as the "Non" campaigners have tried, is generally successful then any less than sparkiling defence of the constitution by l'Escroc or his ministers is likely to be counter-productive. I am not convinced that this is possible for anyone on the right other than Sarko and, since l'Escroc has so pointedly shunted Sarko offstage, Sarko has no clear interest in taking the risk of standing up for something unpopular which is being promoted by his arch rival. Thus it will be extremely interesting to see how Sarko positions himself in the constitution fight, certainly he is unwilling to see Turkey join the EU and he is against low tax (i.e. Eastern European) countries getting any EU funds. My bet is that he will stay remarkably silent and make secret pagan sacrifices to pray for a decisive "Non"....
I'll happily help him sacrifice a chicken or two if he asks.
Needless to say one can expect l'Escoc himself to try and pull out all the stops. Mind you, depsite the sumo tournament, his recent visit to Japan looks to have been less than the diplomatic triumph he hoped for. The Japanese prime minister was distinctly unimpressed with l'Escroc's gun-running and pork.grabbing and the cries of help from home meant that he was forced to stop looking like a world statesman and address the tedious domestic issue of the referendum. Oh dear, maybe l'Escroc will indeed be headed for the chokey in 2007.