Norm Geras asks for predictions on a minor byelection in some third rate country called USA [Ooops must remember to switch Sarcasm to OFF when not talking to the French].
My prediction is that Bush will win by some considerable margin in the popular vote (say 7%) and a larger margin in the electoral college (approx 200).
Why do I think this? because I believe that, as feedback to the Grauniad's misguided campaign in Clark County is demonstrating, many Americans are frustrated at being lectured at by people who are benefiting from the actions they complain about. The Kerry campaign has been talking down to voters and comes across to me as sneering at them "I know better, I have a plan but its too complicated for you mere mortals to understand". I don't think that goes over well. Combine that with the generally solid and successful 4 years by Bush and I think the challenger is stuck, particularly when his personal achievements are so limited.