So the US votes on November 2nd. I believe that no matter whether Bush or Kerry wins, shortly afterwards (say Nov 5th - Guy Fawkes Day) Bush will authorise a serious attack on Fallujah to wipe out the enemy there. Unlike the last time the Americas will not be so gentle to the town and its inhabitants. Fallujah will be a bonfire and in many ways this should be seen as a fitting 399th aniversary of the original gunpowder plot.
Bush will do so because a) Fallujah is the major town not under Iraqi/coalition control in Iraq b) An object lesson is needed in order to get peace elsewhere and to get the Iraqi elections on track
No matter who is to be president in 2005 the US needs to make it abundantly clear that there are limits to what is aceptable. I think if Bush loses he will want to make sure that Kerry has at least one festering boil lanced in Iraq and if he wins he has every incentive to show the world that he deserved to win.
Why Fallujah? Al Sadr is just about controlled. The Sunni fighters aren't. I doubt we will see a Hama style razing of the town but I would be extremely unsurpised if we do not see a cordon surrounding the last redoubt and that that is then pulverized.
Personally I think this should be done sooner, but I'm skeptical that it will because the Democrats and segemnts of the US media would be find 1001 ways to spin this as a negative and a sign of "quagmire" or something. As a result we will see a month more of terrorist activity and many more innocent iraqis will die, simply because back here in the west a bunch of hypocrites would rather see America lose than Bush win.
I despise l'Escroc and Vile