From: "Tim Osborn" To: "Keith Briffa" Subject: Re: ppt Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2007 14:14:23 -0000 (GMT) Reply-to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Here is the old version for you to compare with... the only noticeable difference is for the URALS/YAMAL region, which previously had a higher peak near 1000 AD. Although that was quite a big change, once you average it with the other two series, the overall mean series shows very little difference. Cheers Tim On Thu, March 1, 2007 1:57 pm, Keith Briffa wrote: > Tim > am back and looking at this now > thanks > Keith > At 12:23 01/03/2007, you wrote: >>Hi again, >> >>please see the attached PDF file. I've not yet put it into powerpoint, >>because I wanted to check whether it matches what you want, or if you >> want >>fewer lines on it etc. >> >>Each page is identical layout, for the 3 regions and then the 4th page is >>for the average across all the data. >> >>On each page you have the scatter graphs (and correlation) between the >>unfiltered and the 10-year smoothed TRW and summer temperature. Plus the >>3 calibration lines (our normal regression in black, variance matching in >>orange, and inverting the regression of TRW onto temperature in brown), >>thin lines between unfiltered data and thick lines between 10-year >>smoothed data. The solid blue scatter plot points are those used in the >>1900-1990 calibration period, the blue circles with a cross in are from >>outside the calibration period. >> >>The top panels show the full 2000-yr reconstructions, with the line >> colour >>and thickness coordinated to match the calibration lines in the bottom >>panels. The only exception is that I have omitted the inverse regression >>between unfiltered data (the line is shown dotted on the bottom left >>panels), because this resulted in such huge variance that the curves went >>way off the vertical scale! >> >>In this top panel, all series, including the instrumental (blue), are >>50-year smoothed. In the Scandinavian panel, there's also the longer >>Tornedalen summer temperatures overlaid in green. >> >>So... I can put each of these into a powerpoint slide. >> >>Easily, I could also repeat them for a shorter period and less smoothing >>(e.g. 1500-present with decadal smoothing, or 1800-present with no >>smoothing). >> >>I could also omit some of the curves if you think 5 reconstruction >>alternatives per panel is too many. >> >>With slightly more time, I could make it so that the powerpoint built up >>with 1 alternative reconstruction at a time, until all 5 were there. >> >>I'll call you soon and we can talk about it. >> >>Cheers >> >>Tim >> >>On Thu, March 1, 2007 10:17 am, Keith Briffa wrote: >> > Hi Tim >> > thanks >> > I would be happy with only the usual regression but the plots with >> > different timescales shown - for each and the average series would be >> > great >> > cheers >> > Keith >> > >> > >> > At 09:51 01/03/2007, you wrote: >> >>Hi Keith -- I forgot to describe the contents of the PPT file I sent >> >>yesterday. Basically it starts with a few comparisons of the modern >> >>period between the MXD-based recons and the instrumental data. >> >> >> >>First 3 show data only up to 1960. >> >>(1) Full MXD reconstruction >> >>(2) Masked MXD reconstruction (masked by availability of instrumental >> >> temps) >> >>(3) Masked temperatures (masked by availability of MXD) >> >>All with 5-year filter >> >> >> >>Then the same as above, except the next 3 show data up to 1995 to >> >>illustrate the decline. >> >> >> >>Then a couple more repeating the above, masked MXD then masked >> >>temperature, but this time without any time-filtering, so you can see >> >>individual warm and cold years. >> >> >> >>Then finally the full MXD reconstruction back to 1400, but only up to >> >> 1960. >> >> >> >>I'm working from home today. I'll redo the calibrated northern >> Eurasian >> >>stuff -- do you want all the options again (i.e. forward and inverse >> >>regression, variance matching, pre-/post-calibration averaging of the >> >>regions, low and high pass filtering?). >> >> >> >>Then we can make any final slides Friday morning if that's ok with >> you! >> >> >> >>Cheers >> >> >> >>Tim >> > >> > -- >> > Professor Keith Briffa, >> > Climatic Research Unit >> > University of East Anglia >> > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> > >> > Phone: +44-1603-593909 >> > Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> > >> > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >> > >> > >> >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\old_eurasian.pdf"