From: "Michael E. Mann" To: tom crowley Subject: Re: Science letter Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001 12:00:03 -0500 Cc: "Raymond S. Bradley" , mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, tom@ocean.tamu.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, td@gfdl.noaa.gov, hpollack@geo.lsa.umich.edu Thanks for clarifying Tom, Yes, these are my sentiments as well, and I would conditionally sign-on to this effort. In the meantime, I think there is a lot of good science to be done! mike At 10:53 AM 3/2/01 -0600, tom crowley wrote: >Dear All, > >A few more comments re Mikes note - Mike and I thought that if we cannot >make a case to our colleagues, why muddy the waters further (as either >Keith, Malcolm, or Ray said)? > >That said, I don't think this has been wasted time. I still think a >thoughtful short paper on the subject of Holocene climate change wold be >useful, this time stating it from OUR perspective (i.e., not focusing >exculsively on Broeckers message). By broadening this it may be more >interesting; we could also include a couple of figures and maybe add some >input from Tom Delworth and Henry Pollack. I would be willing to take a >crack at this, and if anyone wants to CONDITIONALLY sign on, I would be >more than happy to include you. > >I probably would not begin this until late April, after our trip to Germany >and the meeting in Virginia. > >Tom > >ps fyi I counted the average spacing between the warm and cold >oscillations in the iron oscillations illustrated by Broecker. Regardless >of whether warm or cold are used, the mean spacing is indeed 1.5 k, >although the s.d. is 0.4k HOWEVER, the mean spacing between the four main >warm phases illustrated by Broecker on the same figure is, believe it or >not, 2.15! much closer to the solar peak. This calls to mind the >interesting (and clever) Wigley and Raper paper in Proc. Roy. Soc. (1990) >indicating that, given the uncertainties in chronology, solar forcing plays >a role i n Holocenn climate change. It therefore seems that the conveyor >is indeed oscillating but the time scale of the larger scale CLIMATE shifts >may be more regulated by solar, with volcanism adding some stochastic >contribution. Something like this is worth adding to the proposed Eos >piece. > >Tom > > > >Thomas J. Crowley >Dept. of Oceanography >Texas A&M University >College Station, TX 77843-3146 >979-845-0795 >979-847-8879 (fax) >979-845-6331 (alternate fax) _______________________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (804) 924-7770 FAX: (804) 982-2137 http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml