L'Ombre de l'Olivier

The Shadow of the Olive Tree

being the maunderings of an Englishman on the Côte d'Azur

02 June 2009 Blog Home : June 2009 : Permalink


Here's a question for the readership (and no peeking down below where the answer is given).

Looking at these graphs can you tell which one of the various alphabet soup plots is different?
What is the difference?
No? not so clear? Well perhaps I can explain slightly.

What we are looking at here is the correlation between certain two measurements as produced by various climate change models. The X axis is the change is Sea Surface Temperature (SST) per year as measured. The Y axis is the change in output radiation per year as predicted in a number of different models. The correlation matters because if there is a positive correlation (slope from bottom left to top right) then it indicates that there is a negative feedback loop in SST change such that the hotter the sea gets the more heat is radiated away. If, on the other hand, there is a negative correlation (slope from top left to bottom right) then it indicates that there is a positive feedback loop in that the sea retains/absobs more heat the hotter it gets. This is a Bad Thing® and is what all the global warming people are so worried about.

So now do you see the diffence after the trend lines are added in?
Lines make it easier to spot the difference
As you can see the consensus view of the models is that there is a positive feedback loop. Only ERBE bravely goes goes against the consensus. Obviously this model should be thrown away because it's doing something wrong.

Except there's one teeny tiny problemette. ERBE is the actual observed radiation reported by satellites. In other words it looks like actually it's all the other graphs that should be thrown away because they are doing it wrong.


(Graphs from this powerpoint presentation by Dr. Richard Lindzen via the excellent WattsUpWithThat blog)